The parties are moving closer to selecting their final candidates for the November presidential election, and as we observe the candidates and talking heads, we begin to get a sense of how the field is shaping up. Here is how it looks to us at the moment.
Democratic Party
A realistic assessment leads us to conclude that the only viable candidates remaining are Hillary and Obama. For all practical purposes, John Edwards is out of the running. His only value now is as an endorser: Hillary or Obama.
Republican Party
Barring an act of God, Mike Huckabee isn’t going to make a showing, and Rudy Giuliani is also an onlooker. Rudy might spot some daylight if he wins the Florida vote, but realistically speaking, Mitt Romney and John McCain are far ahead. We’ll have a firmer grasp on the final two (or three) once the Florida votes are tallied.
After the national conventions
Of course we don’t know who the final presidential candidate for each party will be. We can speculate, however, about possible opponents on the November ballot and the contrasts between them.
Obama versus McCain
This would be the most interesting matchup. The two offer a clear contrast between the old and the new, the younger generation versus the senior gentry. McCain’s main weakness may well turn on the accusation that he is a one-issue candidate who slavishly follows the failed war policies of George Bush. McCain’s strength would be the classic Republican charge that Obama isn’t supporting the troops. My prediction: Obama. The country seems in the mood for major changes.
Obama versus Romney
This will be another case of a younger versus an older generation. But the differences will not be about age but about old patterns of thinking. Romney is of the buttoned-down corporate-man class who has enough money to pay for his own election. Obama represents the middle class and those of more modest circumstances. As well, Romney is a supporter of Bush’s Iraq policies. My prediction: Obama, providing that he draws the class distinctions clearly enough. There are more modest income sufferers than rich ones.
Clinton (Hillary) versus McCain
This is another generational matchup of sorts. Clearly, Hillary represents the growing power of the female political presence. If elected, she will become the first woman president in the history of the United States. A win for her will be a powerful statement on behalf of female equality as well as a potent vote-getter for all women in future elections. McCain will seem as a throwback to days long gone. My prediction: Hillary. Women are going to vote in droves.
Clinton (Hillary) versus Romney
Here we have two individuals of roughly the same age (both born 1947, social class, and political standing. But Romney’s main weakness is his continuing support for Bush and his policies. One could argue that Romney is a liberal Republican and Hillary is a conservative Democrat. Both arguments have a grain of truth to them. Romney was the governor of one of the most liberal states in the U.S. and he could not have been elected without the support of the state’s liberal voters. Hillary is a part of the Democratic power establishment that has become increasingly clustered around the center of the political spectrum with spillovers to the right. Republicans such as Bush have indicated a preference for her as a president over Obama. My prediction: Hillary. Again, an overwhelming female turnout will carry her to the presidency.
Summing up
As matters stand at the moment, our belief is that the Democratic candidate will win whether it is Hillary or Obama. In either case, the race is going to come down to a generational contest, whether the generations are separated by age or outdated political beliefs. The Democrats are clearly in the catbird seat on change.
Admittedly, these are reflections without a great deal of specificity. But then, we’ve called it right when the experts were wrong. Sometimes gut feelings turn out to be on the mark, polls and the opinions of talking heads notwithstanding.
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