Back to the Basics of Electoral Politics

The media is filled with numerous polls which purport to demonstrate that Obama is ahead here, McCain there, Obama leads among Latino voters, and so on.

Perhaps it’s time to refresh our memories about the Constitutional system for selecting a President of the United States.

The President is not elected by a direct popular vote. Rather, individuals called Electors, who hold their positions according to the rules established by the State Legislatures, elect a President. There is no specific constitutional “right” of an individual American citizen to vote directly for a candidate of his or her choice. Instead, as individuals, we vote for a slate of electors.

The system is complicated, cumbersome, and widely misunderstood. The link at the beginning of the preceding paragraph, which will take you to Wikipedia, explains the system as well as any other source.

In a nutshell, each state has a number of electoral votes equal to the total of their combined number of Senators and Representatives in the federal Congress. Thus, California with two Senatorial  and 53 Representational seats has 55 electoral votes for President.

In addition to the total number of states’ votes, the District of Columbia is entitled to three electoral votes under the 23rd Amendment to the Constitution.

The total number of electoral votes for the 50 states and the District in 2008 is thus 538. To become the President, a candidate would  require a majority of those votes, or 269 + 1, for a total of 270 electoral votes.

Basic 8th Grade Civics class stuff. But it’s important to remember because the polls can be misleading. A better gauge of how a candidate stands can be found by examining the current estimated state by state electoral vote breakout.

Here’s one excellent site, complete with an electoral map and supporting data in tabular form. According to this site, Obama leads in the solid electoral vote category 153 to 99.

In terms of states leaning toward one candidate or the other, Obama leads in that category as well with 85 to McCain’s 64. There are 137 tossup states.

Keep in mind that this is early in the game. The map will change, and other “experts” may have other visions of the electoral vote distribution.

But primarily keep your eye on Electoral College politics rather than side matter such as polls and trips to foreign countries.

Politics is pragmatic. In this game, idealism is for the untutored.

Technorati Tags: Electoral College,Barack Obama,John McCain,California,Latino Voters,Polls

Facebook Hell

Now that my Firefox browser is functioning adequately, I discovered a useless feature.

Firefox informs me which of my Facebook Friends is online when I login.

Frankly, my dears, I don’t give a damn. It’s going to be one of two or three politicians who apparently leave their Facebook page open in perpetuity.

I have visions of them welding a laptop to a nightstand near their beds and attaching it to a Rube Goldberg device that screeches when an E-mail arrives.

No, my real Facebook interest isn’r in the sleeping habits of politicians but in the little bits and pieces of information an astute observer can detect by closely examining those ubiquitous come-ons (some call them targeted advertisements) that appear in Facebook’s extreme left panel.

Like this morning, I noticed a bit of information that floored me.

Tom Cruise has an IQ of 124. My God, that’s up there in the vicinity of John McCain’s.

Only fools click on those enticements, so I clicked, determined to prove that my IQ is at least equal to Tom’s.

Well, I worked through a 10-question quiz and concluded quickly that my own IQ was bound to be at the top of the IQ scale. 124? Nada, Tom. How about Mensa qualified?

Not to cheer my own intellectual capabilities, but the quiz actually tested the possession of specific, simple facts, like How many sides does a Pentagon have?

Well, the correct answer–growing like a mitosic cell–wasn’t included. Long story short, I checked five because George Bush’s skull has five sides.

Or, What are the primary colors? The choices were red, green, blue, and yellow. Hell, I knew that. Yellow for crissakes. What am I, a moron?

After I checked the correct answer to all of the ten questions, I clicked a button to see the outcome of my genius.

There’s always a catch. The vendor of this clever advertisement wanted my cell phone number before he/she/it would tell me my IQ.

That isn’t the worst of it. When I clicked a Close Window button, I became mired in a never-ending series of windows, none of which wanted to close. I finally shut down my machine and had breakfast.

I have a sneaking hunch some of those windows are lurking beneath the surface, waiting for an appropriate opportunity to grab me by the throat.

I also have this eerie feeling that no one ever scores below Tom Cruise.

Technorati Tags: Facbook,Firefox,IQ Test

Bits and Pieces

Solitude
The house is quiet now that the hordes have departed. I’ve been thinking of a few pearls of wisdom some of them passed along. I’ll try to incorporate them in a post shortly.

Basic Brown
Willie made some cogent observations in his Chron column yesterday. Among other things, he said what I’ve said for months, namely that Obama is his own worst enemy. I’m convinced that Barack is on the edge of losing this election unless he begins to drive the discussion away from Iraq and toward the economy.

Let’s face it. He doesn’t look like a commander in chief. Yes, he looks presidential, but the two are horses of a different color. A stubborn prognathus jaw is required of a CIC. A President has to look, well, thoughtful, stately, Presidential. Barack meets the second spec, but needs a little surgery to create the appropriate pissed-off look of a well-rounded modern American head of state.

Firefox
I downloaded the latest edition of the Firefox browser a few days ago and it has been working well so far. The new one is Version 3.0.1, a much improved browser according to the hype. Previous editions were unstable and on several occasions, I removed the program to prevent computer lockups. If my latest download continues to work as it has for the past several days, the bugs that put the whammy on my machine are gone. Let’s hope…!

The latest version came with a new feature that I like, the ability to enlarge images on the ‘net with your mouse or pad. Most browsers permit type enlargement, but Firefox is the only browser I know about that will enlarge an image.

On my laptop, I can enlarge images by holding the Ctrl key down and clicking ++ several times to get a larger image. On my desktop, the feature works by holding down Ctrl and rolling the mouse scroll wheel.

I don’t know if this feature has any practical application unless you have a fetish for finding warts, pimples, and wrinkles on the faces of people you don’t like, which isn’t a bad idea come to think of of.

Are you into romance?
The Romance Writers of America (RWA) is holding its annual conference July 30-August 2, 2008, at the Marriott Hotel, 55 Fourth Street, San Francisco.

Holy Romance, Lover Man! Is that a suitable location for the flowering of love? I suppose so. An imaginative writer could cook up a plot involving love at first sight between a street denizen who turns out to be a member of Britain’s Royal family and an innocent maiden from Hays, Kansas. I just threw Hays in because there aren’t too many innocent maidens in SF.

Golf can be hazardous to your health
Poor ole Michelle Wie had another kiss of death planted on her Saturday. After playing three rounds of sub-par golf, which put her one stroke behind the leader in the LPGA State Farm Classic going into Sunday, LPGA officials discovered that she had  departed the “Signing” area after the completion of her Saturday round without signing her scorecard, an automatic disqualification.

What else could happen to this poor kid? I can’t think of anything, unless perhaps she gives birth on the 18th hole when she’s fifteen strokes ahead in the world’s most prestigious golf tournament. Birthing during a tournament is probably an automatic disqualification.

Technorati Tags: Willie Brown,Barack Obama,Firefox,Visitors

Testing

We are overhauling our system and are testing it’s effectiveness.

Be patient.

The Way I Hope It Turns Out

I’ve always liked Jerry Brown. Perhaps that’s why I want Alex Tourk to sign-on to Jerry’s gubernatorial campaign. A few advantages will accrue to Jerry with Alex’s strategic brain on his side.

First of all, Alex knows the Newsom operation inside and out, and as it stands now, Newsom may be the candidate to beat.

Second, most of the staff of Alex’s Ground Floor Public Affairs also possess inside knowledge of the comings and goings in City Hall.

With Alex at the helm, this translates into a formidable strategic and tactical force. Probably the single most important element in developing strategies and tactics is an intimate knowledge of the opponent, his personality, his reactive tendencies, his preferred modes of operation, his weaknesses, and his strengths.

Of weaknesses, Newsom has many, not the least of which is his tendency to flashes of anger in moments of stress. As I’ve mentioned before, his behavior regarding Dan Noyes is a classic example of his often petulant reactions.

Of his strengths, not many are known to me, although I will grant that he presents himself well in public when he is able to control a situation. At the state and national political levels, he will have little if any control over events. Certainly, he will face a media that will not color him with nice, soft, neutral language.

If his handlers haven’t drilled him in controlling his outward hostility to hard questions, he’ll be dead in the water about the time he leaves the serenity of the Bay and enters the rough waters of the Pacific, which isn’t calm at all despite its misleading label.

One thing you can bank on: Alex and his staff of seasoned campaigners know everything I’ve enumerated and more.

On the potentially negative side, doubts could arise about the very experienced staff we’ve been discussing. With recent experience in the Newsom administration and actively campaigning for him in 2007, what might we make of the fact that they wholeheartedly gave Newsom their all so recently?

Can they easily switch loyalties? If they can, what does that say about politics? Is it merely a game that only a gullible public plays with sincerity while the politicians sit back and laugh?

I suspect that the public is certainly gullible. I also suspect that a majority of our politicians are quite cynical, especially after they’ve played the game awhile.

Let’s hope that Alex’s group defies the stereotypical political gamer and works wholeheartedly for Jerry Brown if Alex signs on with him.

Technorati Tags: Alex Tourk,Gavin Newsom,2010 Gubernatorial Race,Jerry Brown,Ground Floor Public Affairs

Strategic Advantage

Following up on my immediately preceding post, I’ve researched the matter a little further and concluded that Jerry Brown will have a strong strategic advantage over Gaston Noisome in the governor’s race if he manages to secure the services of Alex Tourk.

In addition to having Tourk himself on his team, a fact bound to unnerve el Gavo, Jerry will have the benefit of the entire staff of Ground Floor Public Affairs, a group of individuals not only with substantial relevant campaign experience behind them but also an in-depth knowledge of the mayor himself and his style of management.

Here are the members of Ground Floor Public Affairs and a capsule of their experience working with Newsom and his team. You can check their full biographies at the link above.

Patrick Collum
Worked in the San Francisco Mayor’s Office and the Gavin Newsom Campaign for Mayor in 2007.

Justin Roja
Two years with Newsom’s office as a Liaison to Supervisory Districts 1, 2, 7, and the Recreation and Parks Department.

Aaron Goldsmith
Worked in the San Francisco Mayor’s Office.

Britt Gerhard
Worked in the offices of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and on the Newsom for Mayor Campaign.

Jacob Saperstein
Field Director of the Newsom for Mayor Campaign in 2007, helping raise more than $600,000 before the December 31, 2006, filing deadline.

And of course Alex Tourk with his brain and likability and more than a decade in the public sector and on four mayoral campaigns.

The Ground Floor staff also includes other highly-qualified professionals who didn’t serve in Newsom’s office or on his campaigns but nonetheless possess a record of successful campaign experience. These include:

Alexander Wong
Has worked on local, state, and federal campaigns.

Jordana Stein
Worked on Capitol Hill, on John Kerry’s campaign, and on various national issues-oriented campaigns.

In our next post, we’ll cover the advantages of having a staff like this with you, and we’ll mention some pitfalls.

Note: With these brief excerpts from the Ground Floor Public Affairs website, I sincerely trust that I’m within existing copyright laws and journalistic standards of fair use.

Technorati Tags: Alex Tourk,Ground Floor Public Affairs,Gavin Newsom,Jerry Brown,2010 California Governor’s Race

On the Fly

Family Ties

So, Phil, you wanna spend some time with the family? What? Assist the wife in the operating room? Think she can remove a few warts from Newsie before he throws his campaign for governor in high gear?

Letting It All Hang Out

So, Phil, you think Muhrcuns are whining snivelers? Well, you’re right, pal. Muhrcuh has entirely too many people in it like you.

A Star is Born

So, Bethie, you wanna be a star? You got it, babe. Your performance on Art Bruzzone’s San Francisco Unscripted show tells the tale–intelligent, comfortable with the camera, sparkling eyes and personality. Oh, did I mention beautiful?

By the way, do you and Art have a thing going on here? You two seemed mighty comfortable together. And you kept flashing your palms at him, a certain sign of attraction. Were your pupils dilated, too? That’s a signal of pure animal magnetism.

Terminado para el día

Okay, finished for the day. Family matters demand my attention. Take heed, Phil. Get your running shoes on.

Technorati Tags: Beth Spotswood,Phil Ginsburg,Phil Gramm